Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 9.432848e-05 0.000114 0.000134 0.000158 0.000184 0.000212 0.000244
2024-10-13 7.104017e-05 0.000096 0.000124 0.000158 0.000197 0.000241 0.000292
2024-10-20 5.581003e-05 0.000082 0.000114 0.000154 0.000202 0.000256 0.000322
2024-10-27 4.556672e-05 0.000074 0.000109 0.000155 0.000211 0.000277 0.000359
2024-11-03 3.385810e-05 0.000061 0.000096 0.000145 0.000206 0.000279 0.000371
2024-11-10 3.062214e-05 0.000059 0.000098 0.000153 0.000223 0.000308 0.000416
2024-11-17 2.429799e-05 0.000052 0.000092 0.000148 0.000224 0.000316 0.000436
2024-11-24 1.838186e-05 0.000044 0.000084 0.000142 0.000222 0.000321 0.000451
2024-12-01 1.425971e-05 0.000039 0.000078 0.000138 0.000222 0.000328 0.000468
2024-12-08 1.097124e-05 0.000034 0.000073 0.000135 0.000223 0.000336 0.000487
2024-12-15 8.036747e-06 0.000029 0.000067 0.000130 0.000221 0.000339 0.000500
2024-12-22 6.151252e-06 0.000026 0.000064 0.000128 0.000223 0.000349 0.000520
2024-12-29 3.853759e-06 0.000022 0.000060 0.000129 0.000232 0.000373 0.000566
2025-01-05 2.198935e-06 0.000018 0.000057 0.000129 0.000242 0.000397 0.000614
2025-01-12 9.922849e-07 0.000014 0.000052 0.000125 0.000244 0.000411 0.000648
2025-01-19 4.441339e-07 0.000012 0.000049 0.000126 0.000254 0.000436 0.000697
2025-01-26 4.894894e-08 0.000008 0.000042 0.000117 0.000247 0.000436 0.000712
2025-02-02 1.461886e-08 0.000008 0.000043 0.000124 0.000266 0.000474 0.000778
2025-02-09 NaN 0.000006 0.000039 0.000121 0.000267 0.000486 0.000808
2025-02-16 NaN 0.000004 0.000034 0.000115 0.000265 0.000493 0.000833
2025-02-23 NaN 0.000003 0.000031 0.000112 0.000266 0.000503 0.000861
2025-03-02 NaN 0.000002 0.000028 0.000109 0.000267 0.000516 0.000893
2025-03-09 NaN 0.000001 0.000025 0.000104 0.000266 0.000522 0.000916